Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Resilience of SA agriculture
In this week's segment, I focus on critical events shaping South Africa's agriculture and performance. I expect a mild contraction in the gross value added following two years of solid growth. Still, it is essential to note that overall activity has remained strong, and the sector has maintained its core…
Land Reform in South Africa
In this week’s special segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo speaks with Professor Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University, about an article he co-authored with him on South Africa’s land reform. Here is an extract: South Africa’s land reform policy remains highly contested. But, in our…
Optimism about SA maize harvest
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) 's Pretoria office is a key institution and it is worthwhile to keep an eye on their views. They recently released an updated view of South Africa's 2022/23 maize production season, leaning strongly towards the views of South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee (CEC)…
Heavy rains in SA agriculture
In this week’s podcast segment, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo shares his observations of how the heavy rains in South Africa influence farm activity. He provides granular insights into each agricultural subsector. For example, the rains have had a mixed impact on fruits, where Banana and macadamia fields were distracted in…
Highest tractor sales in 40 years
I have been closely following South Africa's monthly tractors sales data, and the results remain encouraging. Since April 2020, the monthly sales have remained positive, registering an average of 26% y/y growth over the past 31 months. When this year started, I thought the farmers would reduce spending on agricultural…
Favourable agriculture season for SA
In this week's podcast episode, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo provides an update on South Africa's agricultural conditions. He highlights that signals point to another favourable agricultural season for South Africa and the broader southern Africa region in 2022/23. He cites the Seasonal Climate Watch report recently released by the South…
Kenya embracing genetically modified crops
In this week’s episode, the agricultural economist, Wandile Sihlobo, assesses what Kenya’s decision to lift the ban on the cultivation and importing of genetically modified (GM) white maize means. Kenya’s President, William Ruto, a scientist with a PhD, made this change in response to growing food insecurity in the country…
Global agricultural conditions
In this week’s segment, agricultural economist, Wandile Sihlobo, explores the global agricultural conditions for the 2022/23 season, with a specific focus on grains and oilseeds. In painting this global picture, Sihlobo utilizes the grains and oilseeds production estimates from the International Grains Council (IGC). In essence, the 2022/23 global grain…
South Africa’s Food Security Conditions
October 16 marked World Food Day, commemorating the founding of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization in 1945. Across the world, this day offers an opportunity for countries to assess their food security conditions and efforts to boost agricultural production. One of the measures that some often use to…
What a possible strike at Transnet would mean for SA Agriculture
One major challenge that emerged this past week that directly impacts South Africa's agriculture is the possible strike at Transnet. The weekend papers cited statements by the representatives of the South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (Satawu) and the United National Transport Union (Untu) that demand a wage increase…
SA starts the 2022/23 crop season
South Africa is starting the 2022/23 summer crop production season this month. The preliminary insights suggest that South Africa could have another good season. The three critical indicators we have thus far, i.e., (1) the tractor sales, (2) the weather outlook for the next four months, and (3) grains and…
Agricultural input prices elevated
While some farmers in the grains and oilseeds industry benefited from the unusually long period of large yields and higher prices, higher input costs since the start of 2020 have limited the benefits. For farmers in the horticulture industry, where commodity prices did not increase as much as in grains,…
Wheat in South Africa
If one is not dealing with a particular commodity in their daily business, they rarely keep an eye on whether it is produced sufficiently locally or imported. The main concern for consumers is always whether they get their preferred products on shelves when they go to the store. This has…
SA is in a weather market
We are a month away from the start of the 2022/23 summer season. Farmers in the eastern regions of South Africa, which includes the eastern Free State, Mpumalanga, KwaZulu-Natal and Eastern Cape, will start planting by mid-October. This will primarily be summer grains and oilseed plantings. The Northern Hemisphere experienced…
SA agriculture exports up 5% in Q2, 2022
Trade is at the core of South Africa's agricultural progress. But the past few months brought challenges in key markets such as China and the EU, threatening South Africa's export activity. Fortunately, some of these challenges have now been resolved, and South Africa could see continuous exports, specifically to China…
Challenges in SA farming
To understand the real challenges of farmers, it is necessary to spend a considerable amount of time on the ground talking to farmers and to get a better feel of the markets. In such engagements in the last week of August 2022, one theme that came up time and again…
SA agricultural exports could decline
South Africa's agricultural export activity will likely soften this year from the 2021 record of US$12,4 billion. Lower production of key crops, animal disease spread and changes in phytosanitary regulations in key markets such as the EU will all weigh on the export activity this year. The changes in export…
Southern and East Africa maize supplies
In the current environment where food security is at the top of the global agenda, we must review the Southern and East Africa region’s staple grains supplies. Maize is one such important staple grain for both food and animal feed. South Africa, Zambia, and Tanzania are the major producers of…
SA agricultural outlook 2022/23
As the harvest for the 2021/22 summer crop season draws to a close, the focus is shifting towards the 2022/23 production season, which commences in October. The preliminary insights suggest that South Africa could have another good season. However, we fear the extreme rains and heat observed in the northern…
SA grains and oilseeds supplies
In this episode of Agricultural Market Viewpoint, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo discusses South Africa’s summer and winter grains and oilseeds production conditions and answers the question of whether the country has sufficient supplies for domestic consumption and exports. This is an essential topic as food security is a significant focus…