Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
There is reason to be optimistic about SA's 2024-25 summer crop season
It is perhaps a reasonable choice to remain optimistic about the upcoming 2024-25 summer season in South Africa's agriculture. The global weather forecasters paint encouraging prospects of weather conditions. For example, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University continue…
The 2024 mid-summer drought continues to weigh on the summer crop harvest
South Africa is on its eighth summer grain and oilseeds production forecast for the 2023-24 season. There are two more monthly reports to follow. Given that we are at the tail end of the season and will soon be in the optimal planting window for the 2024-25 production season from…
What message should SA agriculture take to Kazan for the BRICS+ summit
South Africa's agricultural growth in the first thirty years of the democratic era has been supported, among other things, by two pivotal interventions. The first was a deliberate and concerted strategy to invest in genetics for crops, horticulture, and livestock. The second intervention was a strong push to expand export…
Will the 2024-25 season be a recovery period for SA agriculture?
By this time next month, the fields across the eastern regions of South Africa will likely be busy. Farmers will be tilling the land for the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season in mid-October. It will be another month before the country's western regions start till the land, from…
South Africa must deepen agricultural trade with China
It is hard to discuss global agriculture without mentioning China. The country is a dominant player in exports and imports of agricultural products. In 2023, China was a leading agricultural importer, accounting for 11% of global agricultural imports. Trailing China was the US, Germany, Netherlands, the UK, France and Japan…
South Africa's agricultural export growth cooled off in the second quarter of 2024
After the sharp increase in the first quarter of 2024, South Africa's agricultural exports fell slightly on a year-on-year (y/y) basis in the second quarter. According to data from Trade Map, the country's agricultural exports were at US$3.37bn in the second quarter, a 0,1% decline relative to the same period…
Reflections on women's participation in South Africa's agriculture
On various occasions, I have highlighted South Africa's agricultural sector's gains in the first three decades of democracy. The sector has more than doubled in value and volume terms. Better seed varieties in crops, vegetables, and fruits, as well as improved genetics in livestock and poultry, have, among other interventions,…
SA farm jobs remain well above the long term averages
The effects of the recent El Niño-induced mid-summer drought are starting to show in South Africa's agricultural jobs data. For example, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey data shows that employment in primary agriculture was down 5% quarter-on-quarter to 896k in the second quarter of 2024. From an annual basis perspective,…
South Africa's wheat crop looks promising from a distance
On August 10, we drove across the Swartland region of the Western Cape from the Karoo side of the Northern Cape. As we entered the Western Cape, I couldn't miss the excellent sight of the wheat fields from a distance. And yes, I appreciate that the Western Cape has received…
The better global agricultural conditions paint a comforting food price path
South Africa's agriculture is part of the global agricultural market. Therefore, we must consistently pay attention to the production conditions of agricultural commodities globally as they impact our domestic prices and consumers. The world endured elevated food prices in the past few years for various reasons, ranging from drought in…
The mid-summer drought was harsh, but SA will still have sufficient grain supplies for domestic consumption
South Africa's agricultural sector has various institutions, organizations and committees that all play specific roles in supporting the sector's growth and sustainability. One of the vital committees housed at the Department of Agriculture is the Crop Estimates Committee. This Committee benefits on skills, among others, from government, academia, and the…
These are three major challenges facing SA agriculture at the start of July
The start of July presented three challenges whose impact will become clearer in the weeks ahead. Firstly, in the northern regions of South Africa, particularly in Limpopo, the potato crop has suffered losses because of frost after an unusually cold spell in the region. The most affected crops are the…
La Niña prospects in the upcoming 2024/25 season are a welcome development
After a challenging El Niño induced drought season in 2023/24 summer, South Africa’s agriculture may get a relief in the upcoming 2024/25 summer season. Early indications of weather prospects are encouraging, showing a firm likelihood of a La Niña occurrence. The International Research Institute for Climate Change and Society at…
South Africa’s agricultural economic performance in the first half of 2024 is mixed
I view South Africa’s agricultural economic performance in the first half of 2024 as mixed. One can broadly categorise our farming economy into three subsectors: horticulture, livestock and field crops. Horticulture — fruits and vegetables — had a reasonably positive start to the year, benefiting from improved dam levels for…
South Africa's summer grains and oilseed production estimate lifted mildly
South Africa's summer grains and oilseed harvest is in full swing nationwide, and some crops are nearly complete. Thus, the crop size estimates we have at hand are unlikely to change much and possibly represent an actual picture of the harvest. For example, this afternoon, the Crop Estimates Committee lifted…
Achieving inclusive growth in South Africa's agriculture under the Government of National Unity
The SA agriculture sector is not immune to politics. Agriculture is a vital sector of the economy. This explains why it earned special attention in the National Development Plan (NDP), with an entire chapter, Chapter Six, dedicated to it. Recently, there have also been pragmatic plans such as the Agriculture…
SA sees a 20% rise in agricultural trade surplus in the first quarter of 2024
The collaboration between Transnet, organised business and agriculture sector stakeholders to improve efficiency at SA ports must go on. Efficient logistics are the lifeblood of SA agriculture and other exporting sectors of the economy. Admittedly, the deciduous fruit industry faced many challenges at the Port of Cape Town at the…
SA’s agricultural fortunes improved in the first quarter of 2024
After publishing a sharp contraction of -12,2% year-on-year in 2023 of the agricultural gross value-added performance, Statistics South Africa revised the figures to a mild contraction of -4,8% year-on-year. This revised figure is roughly in line with the expectations of various researchers, most notably the Bureau for Food and Agricultural…
SA's summer grains and oilseed production estimate slightly lowered
We appreciate that the minds of many South Africans are on national elections matters, but food matters remain vital in the midst of all. Thus, reflecting on the latest Crop Estimates Committee's (CEC) forecasts for the 2023/24 summer crop production season is valuable. This is a fourth production estimate for…
Jobs in South African farming sector
While South Africa's agriculture has had a rough start to the year, characterised by El Niño-induced drought, the employment conditions remain encouraging. The data recently released by Statistics South Africa shows that employment in primary agriculture lifted by 6% year-on-year to 941,000 in the first quarter of 2024. This is…