Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
South African farmers will start planting summer crops in October, and the outlook is encouraging
Next month, October, we will start our 2025-26 summer grains and oilseed production season in South Africa. The outlook for the season looks optimistic with prospects of rain, which will benefit not only crops but the overall agricultural sector. Listen to the podcast for more information. Richard Humphries and Sam…
South Africa’s agricultural sector will likely see a mixed recover in 2025, with livestock experiencing challenges
South Africa's agricultural sector is in its recovery phase, and the second quarter of 2025 figures signal the improvement, albeit mildly. The country's agricultural gross value added expanded by 2.5% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted) in the second quarter. This follows the 18.6% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of the year. The…
South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remain strong
One of the interlinked industries that tends to benefit when the agricultural sector is thriving is the agricultural machinery industry. This year is no different; South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025. I suspect the sales are likely to continue at this encouraging…
Zimbabwe bans maize imports
The Zimbabwean government has reinstated a ban on maize imports. The government believes that in the interim, there are sufficient supplies for the local market and wants to ensure maximum price realisation for the domestic producers before allowing imports. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if Zimbabwe has sufficient maize supplies for…
South African agricultural exports were up 10% in the second quarter of 2025
After solid export activity in the first quarter of the year, South Africa's agricultural exports totalled US$3.71 billion in Q2, up 10% from the same period a year ago, according to data from Trade Map. This is again a function of both higher volumes of various product exports and better…
South Africa’s agricultural sector may see an uneven recovery in 2025
We continue to see more evidence that 2025 will likely be an uneven recovery for South Africa’s agriculture. The horticulture (fruits and vegetables), and field crops (grains, oilseeds and sugarcane) are experiencing excellent yield recovery, benefiting from better summer and winter rains. But the livestock and poultry industries face some…
The Far East countries are back buying SA's maize
South Africa's maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren't new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one. Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused…
SA's ample grain harvest may help ease food price inflation concern
South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production estimate was lifted again this month, by 2% from the June 2025 estimate to an expected 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year). There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings…
Factors shaping the state of South African agriculture
Various factors, both positive and negative, continue to shape South Africa's agricultural sector. Starting on a positive note, early signs suggest a high likelihood that the upcoming 2025-26 summer season may also present favourable rainfall conditions across South Africa. Current forecasts indicate a neutral season, which would be generally favourable…
South Africans can take a few more tonnes of Brazilian coffee
Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others. Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August…
South Africa lifts the ban on Brazil’s poultry imports
The close observers of this letter will recall that when I first argued for South Africa to place temporary restrictions on the imports of poultry products from Brazil, the idea wasn’t for us to be protectionists. Instead, we wanted to ensure that Brazil controls the avian influenza outbreak before we…
It's time for BRICS countries to deepen agricultural trade
In the current world of trade fragmentation, one area the BRICS countries should consider focusing on more in their deliberations this year is deepening intra-BRICS trade. For South Africa's agriculture, this has been a central input in various discussions for some time, reflecting our desire to expand export markets to…
SA’s ample grain and oilseed harvest bodes well for food price inflation
There are some glimpses of positivity that often arise from the agricultural data, which are worth highlighting. Indeed, these do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal disease challenges in cattle farming and the poultry industry. However, if one is in…
Zimbabwe will remain a net importer of maize in 2025-26
Maize demand in the Southern African region is expected to remain strong in the 2025-26 marketing year, which commenced in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). One of the countries that imported most maize in Southern Africa in the 2024-25 marketing year was Zimbabwe. The country…
Optimism in South Africa’s agriculture
South African farmers and agribusinesses continue to exhibit resilience and optimism. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) -- a sentiment indicator of business conditions in the sector -- although declining from the high levels it reached at the start of this year, remains at encouraging levels. After a notable uptick…
Will China open up for more agricultural products from South Africa?
We are yet to receive more details on China's intentions to lower import tariffs for various African countries. What is worth emphasising for now is that, from a South African agricultural perspective, this would be a welcome development. China has profound importance in global agriculture. In 2023, China was a…
South Africa's agricultural exports up 10% in the first quarter of 2025
In a year where trade has dominated the headlines since the U.S. started imposing higher tariffs against its trading partners, agricultural export activity is worth paying close attention to. Encouragingly, the start of the year has remained positive for the sector. In the first quarter of 2025, South Africa's agricultural…
Southern Africa's grain production rebounds
The Southern Africa region is far better regarding food supplies today than a year ago. For example, Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest to be 3,66 million tonnes, up from 1,5 million tonnes the previous season. This is because of favourable weather conditions and…
South African farms are not under siege
One of the themes that dominated the White House Press session this evening was agriculture – the idea that the farming sector in South Africa is under siege and people are running away. But this could be no further than reality. The South African farming sector or farming community is…
South Africa cushioned the southern Africa region from a maize supply crisis
At the end of April, we completed South Africa's 2024-25 marketing year for maize. This marketing year corresponds with the 2023-24 production season, which was challenged by the mid-summer drought and led to the 22% decline in South Africa’s maize harvest to 12,85 million tonnes. The big help in that…