The Xchange Platform Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Weekly English South Africa Investing · Food Narrated by Sam Mkokeli, Richard Humpries
168 Episodes
1 – 20

Another boost to SA's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed harvest

We are ending South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season on an optimistic note. We now have eight production estimates with two more to follow, which are unlikely to change the positive picture we have. The data released at the end of September 2025 by the Crop Estimates…
3 Oct 10 min

Kenya's maize production has recovered

Similar to the improvement in maize production witnessed in South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and other countries in the Southern African region, Kenya's maize crop has also shown signs of recovery. The latest estimate by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) places the country's harvest at 4.4 million tonnes. This…
27 Sep 11 min

South Africa's food price inflation eases

We see a constructive picture of South Africa's food price inflation, easing at 5.2% in August 2025, from 5.5% in the previous months. South Africa has an abundant harvest of grains, fruits, and various vegetables, and the benefits of this are starting to show in prices. It is these products…
17 Sep 10 min

South Africa's agricultural machinery sales remain strong

One of the interlinked industries that tends to benefit when the agricultural sector is thriving is the agricultural machinery industry. This year is no different; South Africa's agricultural machinery sales have remained reasonably robust since the start of 2025. I suspect the sales are likely to continue at this encouraging…
5 Sep 10 min

Zimbabwe bans maize imports

The Zimbabwean government has reinstated a ban on maize imports. The government believes that in the interim, there are sufficient supplies for the local market and wants to ensure maximum price realisation for the domestic producers before allowing imports. Nevertheless, it remains unclear if Zimbabwe has sufficient maize supplies for…
1 Sep 12 min

South Africa’s agricultural sector may see an uneven recovery in 2025

We continue to see more evidence that 2025 will likely be an uneven recovery for South Africa’s agriculture. The horticulture (fruits and vegetables), and field crops (grains, oilseeds and sugarcane) are experiencing excellent yield recovery, benefiting from better summer and winter rains. But the livestock and poultry industries face some…
15 Aug 10 min

The Far East countries are back buying SA's maize

South Africa's maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren't new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one. Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused…
8 Aug 10 min

SA's ample grain harvest may help ease food price inflation concern

South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production estimate was lifted again this month, by 2% from the June 2025 estimate to an expected 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year). There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings…
30 Jul 11 min

Factors shaping the state of South African agriculture

Various factors, both positive and negative, continue to shape South Africa's agricultural sector. Starting on a positive note, early signs suggest a high likelihood that the upcoming 2025-26 summer season may also present favourable rainfall conditions across South Africa. Current forecasts indicate a neutral season, which would be generally favourable…
25 Jul 11 min

South Africans can take a few more tonnes of Brazilian coffee

Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others. Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August…
18 Jul 10 min

South Africa lifts the ban on Brazil’s poultry imports

The close observers of this letter will recall that when I first argued for South Africa to place temporary restrictions on the imports of poultry products from Brazil, the idea wasn’t for us to be protectionists. Instead, we wanted to ensure that Brazil controls the avian influenza outbreak before we…
15 Jul 6 min

It's time for BRICS countries to deepen agricultural trade

In the current world of trade fragmentation, one area the BRICS countries should consider focusing on more in their deliberations this year is deepening intra-BRICS trade. For South Africa's agriculture, this has been a central input in various discussions for some time, reflecting our desire to expand export markets to…
11 Jul 11 min

SA’s ample grain and oilseed harvest bodes well for food price inflation

There are some glimpses of positivity that often arise from the agricultural data, which are worth highlighting. Indeed, these do not suggest that all is well with South Africa's agriculture; we continue to struggle with animal disease challenges in cattle farming and the poultry industry. However, if one is in…
4 Jul 12 min

Zimbabwe will remain a net importer of maize in 2025-26

Maize demand in the Southern African region is expected to remain strong in the 2025-26 marketing year, which commenced in May (this marketing year corresponds with the 2024-25 production season). One of the countries that imported most maize in Southern Africa in the 2024-25 marketing year was Zimbabwe. The country…
27 Jun 10 min

Optimism in South Africa’s agriculture

South African farmers and agribusinesses continue to exhibit resilience and optimism. The Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) -- a sentiment indicator of business conditions in the sector -- although declining from the high levels it reached at the start of this year, remains at encouraging levels. After a notable uptick…
20 Jun 11 min

Will China open up for more agricultural products from South Africa?

We are yet to receive more details on China's intentions to lower import tariffs for various African countries. What is worth emphasising for now is that, from a South African agricultural perspective, this would be a welcome development. China has profound importance in global agriculture. In 2023, China was a…
13 Jun 10 min
1 – 20