00:12:
We're really grateful for your time and look forward to your insight.
00:16:
And given the work that you do through your Tony Blair Institute for Global
00:21:
Change, I thought it might be a useful start just to share for those in the room
00:27:
and those online who might not be aware of the great work that you do and what part
00:34:
of it is done on the continent.
00:36:
Okay, well, first of all, Livo, thank you very much indeed for having me at the
00:40:
conference.
00:40:
A great pleasure to see everyone here.
00:43:
And
00:48:
I was introduced saying that my institute was working in just over 30 countries.
00:53:
Actually, by the end of this year, it'll be almost 50 that we're in.
00:58:
In Africa, around 20.
01:02:
In Asia, Europe.
01:06:
Middle East, Latin America now.
01:09:
So we're expanding.
01:11:
We've got roughly just over 1,000 people working for us.
01:15:
We have a large policy section too.
01:17:
And we're a not-for-profit,
01:19:
but we try and run ourselves more on business lines.
01:25:
And I started it.
01:27:
So we work helping governments with their reform and change programs.
01:31:
Because when I was in government, and I spent 10 years as British Prime Minister,
01:38:
I found the hardest thing about government was getting anything done.
01:48:
So I had this, you know, because we won a landslide victory, and I came into power,
01:54:
and I thought,
01:57:
I'm Prime Minister, right?
01:58:
I'm the most powerful person in the country, presumably.
02:01:
Well, apart from the Queen, obviously, is a different, but...
02:06:
But so I thought, if I'm sitting around that cabinet table in number 10 Downing
02:12:
Street,
02:13:
and I say something should happen, then something will happen.
02:19:
Big mistake.
02:20:
Nothing happened.
02:24:
The bureaucracy would just absorb the instruction.
02:28:
There would be a lot of dancing around and activity.
02:33:
Then about a year later, I would discover things hadn't really changed.
02:37:
So in my second term, I set up something called a delivery unit,
02:42:
which is now copied in many parts of the world,
02:45:
and started to run the thing more with
02:51:
priorities, with clear focus on implementation.
02:55:
And I always say to people, the problem in politics, well, first of all, politics is
03:01:
a unique profession.
03:03:
in the sense that you can put someone in charge of a country in a very important
03:09:
position with no actual
03:11:
qualifications.
03:13:
So, and, you know, you would never do that in any other walk of life, would you?
03:15:
I mean, you know, I mean, you've been with Standard Bank for 20 years, right?
03:21:
So it wouldn't just have pulled you and put you in the position you're in now.
03:26:
You know, if you were running a football team, you wouldn't say, okay, the most
03:31:
enthusiastic fan, put them in charge.
03:33:
People say, this is insane, you can't do that.
03:34:
But in politics, this is what we do.
03:37:
And the problem is that the skill set that brings you to power, which is often a
03:43:
skill set around persuasion,
03:45:
campaigning, when you get into government,
03:47:
it's not the skill set that really is of such use to you.
03:52:
Yes, of course, you've got to keep on persuading people, but you run as the
03:57:
great persuader.
03:59:
And then when you're in government, you've got to become a great chief executive.
04:02:
and that is a different skill set so this is really the journey that i went on and
04:08:
why i do what i do now with other governments and
04:10:
leaders because you know it it it's what i it's what i found when i was in government
04:15:
and so
04:15:
i say to them let me try and shorten your learning curve that's
04:19:
basically what we know that's wonderful um there's quite a number of topics that we
04:26:
could uh start on i definitely want to
04:28:
come back on your leadership um I suppose lessons, you know, during your two terms.
04:34:
But maybe the most obvious place to start is the geopolitics that we are all
04:40:
experiencing at the moment,
04:42:
both in its unpredictable nature, fast-changing nature.
04:48:
What advice are you giving government officials in how should
04:55:
they think about...
04:58:
their own objectives in this.
05:01:
what appears to be a new um you know landscape uh which is uh hasn't been
05:08:
seen in in forever i would argue yeah so the geopolitical landscape has obviously
05:15:
changed
05:17:
um
05:19:
just before i answer that though let me just say one thing i still think the
05:26:
single most important thing for any country
05:28:
is what you do within your country right and Yes,
05:32:
there are countries that will affect the big geopolitics of the world, but they
05:38:
don't include most countries.
05:40:
But having said that, yes, of course, the election of Donald Trump is a huge change.
05:44:
And it is an inflection point, I think, in modern politics.
05:49:
And my advice to the leaders I work with is get out of your comfort zone,
05:56:
because this is a new era.
05:58:
A lot of conventional thinking does not apply.
06:00:
And I think it's a new era, both in terms of the way America looks at the world,
06:06:
and therefore the way the world has to look at itself and not just at America.
06:11:
So in Europe, there is a reconsideration of Europe,
06:18:
its capabilities, particularly in defense, but not only in defense,
06:22:
that I think is greater than any point in time since the Second World War, which is
06:27:
a good thing, by the way.
06:29:
But, you know, it is a big thing.
06:31:
So I think that's one thing.
06:33:
But the other thing that I think is really interesting from the point of view of
06:40:
government is the Doge experiment and this
06:42:
idea that the state itself needs to reform fundamentally.
06:44:
And you can agree or disagree with the measures that are being taken or the way
06:49:
it's being done,
06:51:
but my institute has a whole policy project called the Reimagined State,
06:56:
and I do believe where this technology revolution is going to create.
07:01:
an era in which we reimagine government and the way that it works,
07:05:
and the countries that understand this and get on top of it are going to do well, and
07:12:
those that don't are going to fall behind.
07:14:
I think this technology revolution is as big, if not bigger, than the 19th century
07:20:
industrial revolution.
07:22:
And therefore, I think it's going to change everything.
07:24:
It's going to change the way we live, the way we work, the way we interact with each
07:28:
other.
07:29:
It's going to change the private sector, as many people here will know better than
07:33:
me.
07:34:
And in time, therefore, it'll change government.
07:37:
Now, government's slower to change than anything else.
07:41:
But in the end, it will.
07:43:
And so I think the key task today for governments is how do you understand,
07:50:
master,
07:52:
and harness this technology revolution?
07:54:
And I think it will be the same for companies as well.
07:56:
But if that happens, it's not surprising.
07:59:
that everything else changes around it, including geopolitics.
08:04:
So if you want what the thing that is motivating Europe at the moment,
08:08:
when it looks at itself now as in a way the Trump administration is forcing it to
08:14:
look at itself and say, okay,
08:16:
where are our capabilities?
08:17:
What makes a great power today?
08:21:
Economic strength, military capability,
08:26:
and probably now technological capability.
08:30:
America's got that, China's got that.
08:34:
I think in time India will have that.
08:40:
Has Europe got that?
08:41:
Well, no.
08:44:
It's got a great single market, commercial market, but has it got real military
08:50:
capability?
08:52:
No.
08:54:
Is it keeping up with America and China in technology?
08:55:
No.
08:56:
So I think what will happen, and to come to Africa specifically, is that these
09:03:
regional alliances,
09:05:
European Union, ASEAN, the alliance in Latin America, Africa Union even, right,
09:11:
are going to become much more important.
09:13:
Because in a world which isn't built on very stable alliances,
09:20:
but is built on power dynamics, if you're not careful in today's world,
09:26:
there are going to be these three giants, and everyone else is going to get sat on.
09:32:
So this is where I think geopolitics is going to take us.
09:35:
No, that's great.
09:36:
And I suppose you touched on technology.
09:41:
In your mind, when you think about the current trajectory of artificial
09:47:
intelligence,
09:49:
and in the context of some of the inequality that we see in the world,
09:54:
which has in some parts driven some of these changes in election outcomes away
10:00:
from incumbents.
10:02:
to new parties.
10:03:
Do you see AI as a tool for good
10:10:
or a tool potentially that will, in exactly what you've just described,
10:16:
strengthen the strong and the weaker will be left even further behind?
10:23:
Yeah, so sometimes I have a discussion with a leader and they'll say to me, yeah,
10:29:
this artificial intelligence,
10:31:
is it a good thing or a bad thing?
10:33:
And I say to them, it's general purpose technology.
10:35:
So it's both.
10:36:
It can be used for good and it can be used for bad.
10:39:
The question you should ask is not, is it a good thing or a bad thing, but is it a
10:44:
thing?
10:46:
In fact, in my view, it's the thing.
10:49:
And when you get generative AI, which is one big step forward,
10:54:
and then you get artificial general intelligence, which is a whole new step
10:59:
forward in time.
11:01:
artificial super intelligence everything's going to change um now the problem for
11:06:
today's leaders and i include obviously myself in this category is that the number
11:13:
of people who really
11:15:
understand this stuff is
11:17:
limited right and you know i over lunch someone asked me about cryptocurrency
11:21:
you You know, a few months back.
11:30:
I made the mistake of agreeing to give a speech on cryptocurrency.
11:36:
So I phone up my son, who's in the technology business, and I say to him,
11:43:
OK, cryptocurrency, explain it to me.
11:46:
So he gives me an explanation, and I say to him, I don't understand a word of what
11:50:
you're talking about.
11:52:
So he sends me, my son sends me this booklet,
11:55:
whose title is The Idiot's Guide to Cryptocurrency.
12:00:
I read it and realize I've attained a higher level of stupidity because I still
12:05:
don't understand the damn thing.
12:07:
Finally, on the morning of the speech, I phone him in desperation.
12:09:
I say, look, I'm about to address these people.
12:11:
What shall I say to them?
12:12:
He said, tell them you're sick.
12:18:
You're not fit to get out there in front of that audience.
12:22:
I mean, I did because I'm a politician, right?
12:24:
So it's really...
12:29:
A lot of it is very difficult to understand,
12:31:
but you're going to be able to deploy this technology in extraordinary ways.
12:36:
So drug discovery is going to get transformed.
12:39:
There are interactive education tools that will teach you some of the basic things
12:46:
around literacy and numeracy
12:48:
better than most teachers can teach.
12:49:
And here's the opportunity for Africa,
12:51:
because a lot of what I was engaged in in my institute going back a decade or more,
12:58:
was how do developing countries develop the legacy systems of the West in health,
13:04:
in education,
13:06:
law and order, in government, right?
13:07:
I don't think that's what Africa should do today.
13:10:
It should be redesigning healthcare based on the use of technology.
13:16:
You know, it should be looking at, it's got, but to do that and to come to your
13:23:
point about, you know,
13:25:
will it create more inequality?
13:27:
You've got to build the digital infrastructure and That digital
13:31:
infrastructure today is supremely important.
13:33:
And so, for example, how you get connectivity to the places that don't have
13:39:
it, how you make sure that everyone has access to electricity,
13:41:
these are the big things that countries have got to get right.
13:42:
But if you do that and you create the right digital platform, you've got some
13:48:
fascinating things happening in the technology sector today
13:50:
in Africa.
13:52:
You know, great things in fintech, but also in other technologies.
13:54:
So I think this is a revolution.
13:57:
that is going to change everything.
13:59:
And, you know, the question is how you get governments to understand what they need
14:06:
to do in order
14:08:
to take advantage of it.
14:10:
No, that's fantastic.
14:12:
You know, one of the issues we've been debating today over the course of today
14:18:
and in
14:20:
tomorrow, it's just the need to mobilise capital to fund the massive
14:25:
infrastructure.
14:27:
gap that we have on the continent.
14:28:
And, you know, there have been a number of issues raised in terms of what are some of
14:35:
the disablers, you know,
14:37:
starting from bankable projects,
14:40:
policy making that is supportive of private capital
14:47:
participation,
14:49:
the perceived risk and maybe given the people in the room here
14:55:
We all believe it's a sort of overestimated risk on the continent,
15:01:
which then drives the cost of funding to be able to fund these projects.
15:09:
I'd be really interested to hear your thoughts, and I know it's one of the items
15:16:
that you, through your institutions,
15:18:
have released some thoughts on how some of that funding, cost of funding, could be
15:22:
reduced.
15:24:
in the continent.
15:26:
But maybe just your own initial thoughts.
15:31:
This topic could have been spoken about 20 years ago, and it feels like it's quite
15:37:
perennial.
15:39:
What, you know, the starting at a high level is stopping the continent from
15:47:
realizing as close as possible its potential in this particular challenge?
15:53:
Yes, this is a really important question.
15:57:
Recently, my institute produced a paper on how you might swap out high interest debt
16:03:
for low interest debt.
16:05:
And we're talking about how you might create a new deal on debt,
16:11:
because it's a massive problem for African countries.
16:14:
I mean,
16:16:
Ghana has a borrowing requirement as a percentage of GDP.
16:23:
less than France,
16:25:
but it costs it five or six times the amount to borrow.
16:31:
And the interest repayments now are, for some countries in Africa,
16:39:
I mean, a massive problem, right?
16:41:
Eating up a huge amount of revenue.
16:43:
And, you know, it's interesting when we did,
16:46:
because I was in power at the time when we did the most...
16:52:
high indebted countries initiative and we've forgave a lot of debt and for
16:59:
example places
17:01:
like nigeria i mean you could see the growth that came from that and the
17:06:
improvement in services
17:08:
and a lot of this recent problem is
17:09:
not you know you've had these world crises you've had covid which did it immense
17:16:
damage to a lot
17:18:
of the economies and shut down a lot of production and then you had the energy
17:22:
crisis.
17:24:
Neither of those things started in Africa, as it were, or were created by Africa,
17:29:
but they've had huge impact.
17:31:
So I think it requires two things.
17:35:
I do think it requires some new multilateral initiative,
17:40:
but I don't think you're going to get that unless it's clear that it's a deal or a
17:47:
bargain in which countries
17:49:
are prepared also to reform their systems of governance.
17:51:
Where, for example, it's you're doing everything you can to reduce the political
17:56:
risk,
17:58:
where you're dealing with longstanding issues of corruption, which can be, you
18:04:
know, you've got to be honest about it, is it can be a big problem.
18:06:
Where the public sector is welcoming a partnership with the private sector,
18:09:
where we're trying to make sure that commercial contracts are honoured,
18:12:
that you have taxation systems for companies that are open and transparent,
18:18:
and where the ease of doing business.
18:20:
is clear, where, for example, in electricity and power generation,
18:24:
you're making regulatory reform so that people know if they invest, there's a
18:30:
proper return.
18:32:
And I often say to presidents I work with on this continent,
18:37:
what you need to do is quite easy to see.
18:40:
It's doing it that's hard.
18:42:
And you've got to take some pretty fundamental decisions that, OK, it may be
18:49:
unfair.
18:51:
that Africa is viewed as a higher political risk.
18:53:
In some ways it is unfair and most people who invest in Africa get a good rate of
18:58:
return,
18:58:
sometimes a better rate of return than they get elsewhere.
19:02:
But if you want to deal with the situation,
19:07:
you've got to accept the political risk as a fact and there are ways of minimizing
19:11:
it,
19:13:
but it requires government to take really strong action and to make sure that people
19:18:
who come invest are
19:20:
treated properly, with predictable rules,
19:22:
with government as a partner and not government as a threat to them.
19:28:
And where if there are problems of corruption within the system,
19:33:
they're dealt with and dealt with firmly so that people believe they can do
19:38:
business in a clean way.
19:40:
If we could just shift gears toward this topic of energy transition and
19:45:
with the African
19:47:
lens and each market in Africa is very different.
19:55:
But these, I suppose, in some of the markets,
19:59:
energy security and access is still quite benign.
20:06:
And when you consider the natural endowments, which often is fossil fuel
20:13:
heavy in some of these markets,
20:15:
when you counter that with actually the impact of climate change,
20:20:
how massive it is on the continent, how it's impacted.
20:24:
the agriculture sector whether it's been flooding or drought how do you how do you
20:31:
think for africa what do you think is a fair transition expectation for the
20:38:
continent we all have a very strong
20:40:
view um
20:42:
in the room i'm sure um but how do you think africa should actually be thinking
20:46:
about
20:48:
about this is there space for africa to define what the transition should be,
20:54:
given all the challenges of maybe lack of access to capital and the need to sources
21:01:
from
21:03:
outside of the continent.
21:05:
Yeah, so I mean, I have a slightly heretical view about this.
21:11:
We'd love to hear it.
21:14:
First of all, for me, the priority for Africa is to develop.
21:20:
and to develop you need energy and you know africa didn't create the climate
21:27:
change
21:27:
problem right i i know it is a real problem but frankly africa's
21:34:
not going to solve that problem itself right
21:39:
so i am in favor of africa doing everything it can around renewable energy
21:46:
because it's got a lot of potential there we
21:48:
my institute actually works on several renewable energy projects There are big
21:53:
hydro projects that Africa could do.
21:55:
It's obviously got big capacity for solar, for wind.
21:58:
But you can't say to an African country that's got significant gas reserves
22:06:
or even oil reserves, you can't develop those because they need to develop.
22:10:
And it's actually better that people are using gas than they're burning wood for
22:17:
cooking, for example.
22:19:
So I just think...
22:20:
Africa's got to go for that.
22:22:
Look, my view of climate change, as I say, I think it is a real problem,
22:28:
but I honestly think it's time you took the climate change debate out of the hands
22:34:
of campaigners and put it in the hands of serious
22:36:
policymakers.
22:38:
Because in the end, the only solution to climate change is through technology and
22:43:
through getting
22:45:
flows of finance to the developing world that allow them to invest in renewables.
22:48:
The one thing that's not mobile is your government.
22:51:
And it really does make a difference.
22:53:
And if you look at the countries that have, you know, come from nothing to
22:59:
success, I mean, it's interesting.
23:01:
You just, you can take two countries side by side, same potential,
23:06:
same resources, roughly same population, one succeeds, one fails.
23:10:
And I could take you around the world and show examples.
23:13:
You could look at Poland and Ukraine before the war, right?
23:17:
Poland because it joined the European Union, because it therefore reformed,
23:21:
because it had to reform.
23:23:
Look at Poland today.
23:23:
It's a successful economy.
23:26:
The average real wages in Poland are not a lot different from the UK.
23:31:
When it fell out of the Soviet Union in 1992 alongside Ukraine, most people would
23:38:
have given Ukraine a better chance.
23:40:
But this is why I think it really is important.
23:43:
And it's important.
23:45:
as a major part of that for the private sector and government to be in the right
23:48:
cooperation.
23:50:
So Tony Blair, thank you so much for your time.
23:51:
I really appreciate your insight and for sharing them so candidly.
23:57:
And thanks for taking the time to come and spend your few hours with us.
24:03:
I'm sure people will be fascinated to know where to after Cape Town.
24:08:
So after Cape Town, I'm actually going to other parts of Africa, starting with
24:14:
Botswana.
24:16:
And, you know, my commitment goes back a long way.
24:19:
I mean, we did a lot when I was in government.
24:22:
And
24:25:
I love, you know, despite all the challenges and the problems, I love the
24:30:
energy of Africa.
24:32:
And every time I come here,
24:35:
I feel kind of revitalized.
24:39:
And as I get older, revitalization gets quite important.
24:44:
Anyway, it's been really great spending time with you guys and thank you very
24:48:
much.
24:49:
Thank you.
