NOW Ep107: A pivot to lower interest rates in SA?
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Inflation is at 3%. The Reserve Bank wants to lock it there. Interest rates are edging down. But the bigger picture is far from settled:
• Growth is stuck below 1%
• US tariffs threaten trade and jobs
• The rand’s strength rests on fragile global sentiment
• Consumers are squeezed and government finances remain stretched
In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs speaks to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop about the shifting sands of macroeconomic policy, and what it means for business, households and markets.
Podcast key moments:
00:00 – Introduction
01:16 - What’s behind the SARB’s shift in inflation targeting? And will it or not result in significant rates cut?
04:44 - What would be the key triggers for either accelerating or pausing rate cuts?
07:43 – What sectors are potential bright spots and which structural drags are most likely to keep the annual growth rate anchored near one percent?
11:12 - What scale of impact do you anticipate tariffs will have our growth, trade balance, and broader economic outlook?
13:59 – How resilient is the South African consumer, and where are we seeing the greatest pressure on household spending?
16:22 - The rand has found support from recent dollar weakness, but how much of this strength is simply global sentiment, and how much reflects genuine improvements in South Africa’s economic fundamentals?
18:44 - How would you characterise current financial-market sentiment towards South Africa?
23:29 - Which key economic indicators will you be tracking most closely in the coming months, and why do they matter for South Africa’s outlook?
Read more on www.investec.com/now
Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what's moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.
• Growth is stuck below 1%
• US tariffs threaten trade and jobs
• The rand’s strength rests on fragile global sentiment
• Consumers are squeezed and government finances remain stretched
In this episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs speaks to Investec Chief Economist Annabel Bishop about the shifting sands of macroeconomic policy, and what it means for business, households and markets.
Podcast key moments:
00:00 – Introduction
01:16 - What’s behind the SARB’s shift in inflation targeting? And will it or not result in significant rates cut?
04:44 - What would be the key triggers for either accelerating or pausing rate cuts?
07:43 – What sectors are potential bright spots and which structural drags are most likely to keep the annual growth rate anchored near one percent?
11:12 - What scale of impact do you anticipate tariffs will have our growth, trade balance, and broader economic outlook?
13:59 – How resilient is the South African consumer, and where are we seeing the greatest pressure on household spending?
16:22 - The rand has found support from recent dollar weakness, but how much of this strength is simply global sentiment, and how much reflects genuine improvements in South Africa’s economic fundamentals?
18:44 - How would you characterise current financial-market sentiment towards South Africa?
23:29 - Which key economic indicators will you be tracking most closely in the coming months, and why do they matter for South Africa’s outlook?
Read more on www.investec.com/now
Hosted by seasoned broadcaster, Jeremy Maggs, the No Ordinary Wednesday podcast unpacks the latest economic, business and political news in South Africa, with an all-star cast of investment and wealth managers, economists and financial planners from Investec. Listen in every second Wednesday for an in-depth look at what's moving markets, shaping the economy, and changing the game for your wallet and your business.
Chapters
- 00:00 Introduction
- 01:16 What’s behind the SARB’s shift in inflation targeting? And will it or not result in significant rates cut?
- 04:44 What would be the key triggers for either accelerating or pausing rate cuts?
- 07:43 What sectors are potential bright spots and which structural drags are most likely to keep the annual growth rate anchored near one percent?
- 11:12 What scale of impact do you anticipate tariffs will have our growth, trade balance, and broader economic outlook?
- 13:59 How resilient is the South African consumer, and where are we seeing the greatest pressure on household spending?
- 16:22 The rand has found support from recent dollar weakness, but how much of this strength is simply global sentiment, and how much reflects genuine improvements in South Africa’s economic fundamentals?
- 18:44 How would you characterise current financial-market sentiment towards South Africa?
- 23:29 Which key economic indicators will you be tracking most closely in the coming months, and why do they matter for South Africa’s outlook?
