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NOW Ep121: Budget Speech 2026 | What’s at stake?

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South Africa’s 2026 Budget arrives at a pivotal moment. Debt is hovering near 78% of GDP. Growth is forecast at just 1.5%. Debt-servicing costs absorb around 5% of GDP. And yet, bond yields have fallen, sentiment has improved and S&P maintains a positive outlook.

Is this genuine fiscal stabilisation or simply a window of opportunity?
In the latest episode of No Ordinary Wednesday, Jeremy Maggs sits down with Investec’s Chief Economist Annabel Bishop and Treasury Economist Tertia Jacobs to unpack:
• Whether debt has truly peaked
• How meaningful the commodity revenue windfall is
• The risk of further “stealth” tax pressure on households
• Municipal reform and infrastructure momentum
• What it would take to secure a credit-rating upgrade

Read more on www.investec.com/now
Chapters
  • 00:00 Introduction
  • 01:40 Is this the beginning of stabilisation?
  • 03:10 Is growth now the binding constraint on fiscal consolidation?
  • 05:25 What are the numbers that matter most in this Budget?
  • 07:37 How material could the revenue windfall be?
  • 09:21 How could Treasury best use this windfall?
  • 11:07 Has fiscal slippage become the default trend?
  • 13:07 What would this Budget need to demonstrate to strengthen the case for an upgrade?
  • 15:17 Can households absorb further stealth tax increases?
  • 16:52 How important is progress at the municipal level?
  • 18:39 How exposed is the fiscal framework to renewed wage pressures?
14 Feb English South Africa Business · Investing

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