Hermann Pretorius: Women voters favour the ANC, but the DA is tipped for big Metro victories…

In this interview with Chris Steyn, Hermann Pretorius of the Institute for Race Relations (IRR) unpacks his polling results on South Africa’s women voters from 2021 to 2026, including the key finding that women voters are keeping the African National Congress (ANC) ahead of the Democratic Alliance (DA). “..all the years from 2021 till now, the ANC has an advantage among women voters.. if only men voted in an election in South Africa in 2026, the ANC and the DA would be essentially tied at 26-27%. If only women voted, the DA would be on 26% and the ANC would be on 37%.” Asked for his predictions of the outcome of the November Local Government Elections, Pretorius estimates that the ANC could get as much as 50% in Mangaung, while DA in Johannesburg could get between 42 to 44% and the ANC between 20 to 23%; the DA in Tshwane between 44 to 47% and the ANC between 24 to 27%; the DA holding Cape Town with between 58 and 61% of the vote; the DA in Ekurhuleni garnering as much 43% of the vote with the ANC down in the mid-low 20s and the Freedom Front Plus at between 9 and 11%; and in EThekwini the DA and MKP possibly tying at 30%, with the IFP at about 14%, and the ANC at around 10%. “But I think the number to watch is MK versus DA. Those I think in an urban-suburban setting are the two parties that are likely to be at each other's throats for that first spot.”