No Ordinary Wednesday | The signals from oil, bonds and inflation

Loading player...
Oil, bond yields and inflation are sending a more cautious signal on the global outlook.
Growth has held up better than expected. But energy markets remain tight, long-term borrowing costs are rising, and central banks are weighing the risk of another inflation shock.
In the latest No Ordinary Wednesday, Ellie Henderson and Callum Macpherson of Investec UK discuss what the oil market, sovereign bonds and economic data are telling us now.
They also explore what this means for interest rates, corporate investment and the risks facing South Africa.
Chapters
  • 00:00 Introduction
  • 01:06 What’s keeping the global economy resilient?
  • 02:17 Oil prices point to disruption into 2027
  • 03:29 When does an energy shock become an inflation problem?
  • 05:02 Wages and core inflation are the key warning signs
  • 06:08 Oil prices balance supply loss and shrinking inventories
  • 07:01 Refined fuels reveal the real energy squeeze
  • 08:32 Why global bond yields are rising
  • 10:29 The Fed faces the toughest policy call
  • 11:44 Managing commodity risk when prices could move sharply
  • 13:08 Higher yields make corporate investment harder
  • 14:15 Middle East conflict remains the biggest risk to the outlook
  • 15:06 Diesel spreads signal when energy markets are normalising
  • 15:53 Physical energy flows will tell the real story
8 Sep English South Africa Business · Investing

Other recent episodes

Macro Monday ep 132: Central banks on a hiking path

The Fed hiked rates last week amid resilient economic growth and higher inflation, much of it due to higher fuel prices at the pump, while the Bank of Japan also increased borrowing costs, with more likely to come. South Africa’s Reserve Bank is likely to follow suit this week, as…
21 Sep 6 min

Macro Monday Ep131: Fed meets as oil prices rise

Gains by Houthi rebels in recent days have placed further upward pressure on oil prices, with benchmark rates up about 3% on Monday morning, while bond yields have risen since the start of the war. Against this backdrop, the Fed meets this week to decide on interest rates, and, according…
14 Sep 8 min

Macro Monday Ep130: Crude prices, US jobs place focus on interest rates

Crude oil prices have risen over 20% in the last month, and this problem seems unlikely to be resolved quickly: prediction markets put only a 30% likelihood of normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz by December. Chris Holdsworth, Global Chief Investment Officer, Investec Investment Management says with services inflation…
7 Sep 8 min

Macro Monday Ep129: Warsh’s hawkish speech

New Fed chief Kevin Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole symposium of central bankers on Friday, leading to a stronger US dollar and increased expectations of rate hikes this year and next year. Investec Investment Management’s Investment Strategist Osagyefo Mazwai examines what this means for the US…
31 Aug 9 min

No Ordinary Wednesday | The economics of tourism in SA

South Africa’s growth challenge is shifting from reform to delivery. Tourism is part of that test. International arrivals rose 12.3% in the first half of 2026. And phase III of the government-business Partnership now puts the sector firmly on the growth agenda, with a focus on air access, visas, safety…
25 Aug 12 min