Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo
SA agricultural exports remained robust in Q2,2023
South Africa's agricultural exports amounted to US$3.4 billion in the second quarter of this year, up by 0,1% y/y. Despite challenges in key export markets such as the EU in the case of citrus, the products that dominated the export list this quarter were citrus, maize, apples and pears, wine,…
Saudi Arabia is a strategic market for RSA agriculture exports expansion
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was mentioned as one of the countries that are set to join the BRICS in January 2024. This is a major development, and one that offers another avenue for diversifying the geographic destinations of South Africa’s agricultural exports. There is no doubt that South Africa’s…
The re-opening of beef export markets is positive for SA
One positive development in South Africa's agriculture this past week was the re-opening of the Chinese beef market and the firm establishment of beef access to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has not featured prominently in South Africa's beef export markets in the past, with…
SA agricultural exports could soften in 2023
South Africa's agricultural export earnings will likely soften this year from the 2022 record. The lower commodity prices, ongoing restrictions to exports of some livestock products because of the foot-and-mouth disease and the stringent regulations of the citrus black spot disease in the EU market are among some of the…
What keeps SA agribusinesses up at night
We spent most of July on the road, engaging with Agbiz members and sector role-players in various regions of the country. The feedback about the near-term outlook was reasonably positive in all our engagements, with many attributing their optimism to the favourable 2022/23 summer crop and 2023/24 winter crop seasons…
Some observations as we approach South Africa's 2023/24 summer crop season
As South Africa's 2022/23 summer cop season draws to a close, the focus is shifting towards the 2023/24 production season, which commences in October. As we stated in our previous notes, the preliminary insights suggest that an El Niño could bring below-normal rainfall, but South Africa could still have a…
There are ample grain supplies in the global market
A lot has happened in the agricultural markets over the past few weeks. First, Russia decided not to renew the Black Sea Grain Deal, which is essential to facilitating exports out of Ukraine and has contributed to a decline in global grain prices. Second, India has banned the exports of…
Russia and India's agricultural policies add risks to global food prices
This past week was dominated by global agricultural events. First, grain exports, specifically from Ukraine, were disrupted when Russia invaded the country in February 2022. But the rising concerns about global food security resulted in the United Nations and Turkey brokering a deal in July 2022 between Russia and Ukraine…
Risks to feed prices for the SA livestock and poultry industry
The livestock and poultry industry has had a difficult last few years. Various external shocks including animal diseases and rising input costs – yellow maize and soybean prices – made for a challenging operating environment for many farmers and agribusinesses. While the spread of diseases may be slowing, and organized…
SA agriculture records a decent trade surplus in Q1,2023
South Africa's agricultural sector had a rough start to the year regarding production and exports. The excessive rains brought production challenges that delayed the summer crop planting activity by roughly a month but later improved. Regarding exports, the slowing agricultural commodity prices reduced profitability from the levels farmers enjoyed a…
SA has the second-largest maize harvest on record
With summer crop harvest underway across South Africa, the recent production estimates are more reliable and reflect the large yields farmers continue to reap. Hence, we were not surprised when South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee lifted the country's 2022/23 commercial maize production estimate by 1% from last month to 16,35…
Zimbabwe may face a significant maize shortfall
From a maize supply perspective, South Africa is in a relatively strong position. According to recent estimates by the Crop Estimates Committee, the country's 2022/23 commercial maize production could reach 16,1 million tonnes, up 5% year-on-year and the third largest on record. Given South Africa's annual maize needs are roughly…
Expected El Niño in 2023/24 summer does not necessarily foretell a bad harvest
Forecasts of an El Niño occurrence in the 2023/24 summer season do not necessarily equate to a bad agricultural season. The upcoming season of possible below-normal rainfall, i.e., El Niño, follows a rare consecutive four years of heavy rains that have improved soil moisture and natural grazing veld. This means…
Why did SA agriculture GDP contract by 12,3% in the first quarter of 2023
The numbers released by Statistics South Africa today show that in the first quarter of 2023, agriculture gross value added sharply contracted by -12,3% quarter-on-quarter (seasonally adjusted). There are a few elements that explain this sharp contraction. First, the field crops had a tough start to the season because of…
Agriculture Master Plan is ripe for implementation
May 2023 marked a year since South Africa's Agriculture and Agro-processing Masterplan was completed and launched. This plan offers the government and the private sector framework to grow the sector, build competitiveness, attract more investment, improve inclusion, and create jobs. This year should mark the start of the implementation phase…
Ample maize supplies in South Africa
South Africa's Crop Estimates Committee lifted the country's 2022/23 maize production estimate by 2% from last month to 16,1 million tonnes. This crop is 5% more than the 2021/22 season and the third-largest harvest on record. As we stated in the previous notes, the expected large harvest is primarily on…
Farm jobs in SA, Black Sea Grain Deal
There was so much happening in agriculture this past week. I want to spotlight one positive domestic matter and a global one. The data released by Statistics South Africa paints an encouraging picture of agricultural employment on the domestic front. In the first quarter of 2023, about 888 000 people…
Can SA expand its maize export footprint in China?
China cancelled US maize orders and purchased of the South African maize. This was a volume of 108 104 tonnes of maize from South Africa in the last week of March and the first few weeks of April 2023. This activity formed part of South Africa’s maize exports in the…
SA is on track for a good winter crop season
The global wheat market has been in focus since Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year. Many countries feared that they would not meet domestic needs because of supply constraints brought by the war in one of the major producing regions. The price surge after the invasion was also a…
SA expects ample summer grains and oilseeds harvest
The Crop Estimates Committee's data reaffirmed our optimism about South Africa's 2022/23 summer grains and oilseeds production season. Maize production is estimated at 15,9 million tonnes, up mildly from last month's estimate and 3% higher than the 2021/22 season's harvest. The current harvest is the third-largest harvest on record. The…