Will the 2024-25 season be a recovery period for SA agriculture?

Loading player...
By this time next month, the fields across the eastern regions of South Africa will likely be busy. Farmers will be tilling the land for the 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production season in mid-October. It will be another month before the country's western regions start till the land, from mid-November. The variation in the optimal planting windows is mainly due to the differences in rainfall patterns.

From now on through the season, the weather outlook will remain a primary focus for the agricultural stakeholders. We are, after all, emerging from a challenging 2023-24 summer grains and oilseed season that resulted in major crop losses. The latest figures from the Crop Estimates Committee show that the 2023-24 summer crop may have fallen as much as 22% from the previous season to 15,69 million tonnes.

The 2024-25 season seems likely to be a recovery period. So far, global weather forecasters such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia Climate School (IRI) continue to indicate an optimistic outlook about rainfall prospects. For example, the IRI sees a possibility of La Niña occurrence from this month to April 2025. This weather event typically brings above-normal rainfall for South Africa and the entire Southern Africa region.

The critical period for rainfall for South Africa's summer grains and oilseed is between October and the end of February the following year. This is a period between planting and pollination of the crop. The months after are essential, but the crop could still have decent yields even if there is less rain after the pollination.

Listen to the podcast for more details.

Podcast production by Richard Humphries, and Sam Mkokeli

My writing on agricultural economic matters is available on my blog: https://wandilesihlobo.com/
16 Sep 2024 English South Africa Investing · Food

Other recent episodes

South Africa’s agricultural sector may see an uneven recovery in 2025

We continue to see more evidence that 2025 will likely be an uneven recovery for South Africa’s agriculture. The horticulture (fruits and vegetables), and field crops (grains, oilseeds and sugarcane) are experiencing excellent yield recovery, benefiting from better summer and winter rains. But the livestock and poultry industries face some…
15 Aug 10 min

The Far East countries are back buying SA's maize

South Africa's maize exports are back in the Far East export markets. These aren't new territories for our maize. We typically export to them during the seasons of abundance, such as this one. Last season, we did not see many maize exports to the Far East. Our export activity focused…
8 Aug 10 min

SA's ample grain harvest may help ease food price inflation concern

South Africa's 2024-25 summer grains and oilseed production estimate was lifted again this month, by 2% from the June 2025 estimate to an expected 18.74 million tonnes (up 21% year-on-year). There is an annual uptick in all the crops, mainly supported by favourable summer rains and the decent area plantings…
30 Jul 11 min

Factors shaping the state of South African agriculture

Various factors, both positive and negative, continue to shape South Africa's agricultural sector. Starting on a positive note, early signs suggest a high likelihood that the upcoming 2025-26 summer season may also present favourable rainfall conditions across South Africa. Current forecasts indicate a neutral season, which would be generally favourable…
25 Jul 11 min

South Africans can take a few more tonnes of Brazilian coffee

Brazil is a major producer of coffee, accounting for nearly 40% of global coffee production. Other major producers are Vietnam 17%, Colombia 8%, Indonesia 6% and Ethiopia 6%, amongst others. Brazil is also a major coffee exporter to the U.S. Consequently, the 50% tariffs that will take effect on August…
18 Jul 10 min