The Xchange Platform Agricultural Market Viewpoint with Wandile Sihlobo

Two points about the uncertain weather outlook and its impact on South Africa’s agriculture over the coming months

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Firstly, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering the onset of an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2027, which is the start of the 2026-27 summer season. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) highlighted this in their report today, 1 May 2026. Depending on the severity of the El Niño, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across Southern Africa.

Secondly, South Africa has experienced favourable rainfall at the start of the 2026-27 winter crop season. However, we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could impact the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year.

Overall, in the coming weeks and months, we’ll need to closely monitor weather developments. The outlook is concerning across the board.
3 May English South Africa Investing · Food

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