Can we create the SA we want to live in after Covid-19?
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Since Cyril Ramaphosa ascended to the presidency of SA two years ago, the country has seen a wide range of economic and political developments, both positive and negative. In some cases reforms have partially borne fruit, but in other cases the country’s economic performance has deteriorated significantly and will continue to do so (at least in the short term) as the country grapples with a sudden and unpredictable health crisis.
Many of the deeds have evidently not matched the words and promises. And there are whirlpools on both sides, not on one side only. If SA is to move ahead into a post-virus era and prosper, then political idealism, ideology and power rivalry must be constructively balanced with sound economic judgment and policy coherence.
There is general agreement that SA has reached a defining fork in the road and that a clear sense of economic direction is now urgently needed. This was acknowledged in the 2020 state of the nation address and the 2020 budget, and has become even more apparent in the face of a major health crisis.
In a throwback to the landmark work of futurologist Clem Sunter, the main policy choices SA now faces are, again, putting the economy on the “high road” or the “low road” into the future. A successful macro-economic policy that enables the country to take the high road should contain three key elements: efficiency, stability and consistency.
But the domestic and global circumstances in which major policy decisions must be taken are, at present, considerably tougher, and the margin for error in policymaking much smaller, than in years gone by. Today, too, sovereign-debt ratings and the need to avoid a “debt trap” feature much more prominently on SA’s policy dashboard and have become vital considerations in the country’s economic steersmanship.
Finding a way back to positive investment status must also now be on the national agenda.
And now, in SA’s already complex economic melting pot, there is Covid-19. Having wreaked havoc in global markets, it is negatively impacting individual countries, including SA, where it is damaging both lives and livelihoods. At a time when there is such widespread economic uncertainty, not only in SA but throughout the world, it is difficult to offer reliable views on the global or domestic economic outlook.
Suffice to say that the severity of the damage caused by the virus and the raft of measures required to ...
Many of the deeds have evidently not matched the words and promises. And there are whirlpools on both sides, not on one side only. If SA is to move ahead into a post-virus era and prosper, then political idealism, ideology and power rivalry must be constructively balanced with sound economic judgment and policy coherence.
There is general agreement that SA has reached a defining fork in the road and that a clear sense of economic direction is now urgently needed. This was acknowledged in the 2020 state of the nation address and the 2020 budget, and has become even more apparent in the face of a major health crisis.
In a throwback to the landmark work of futurologist Clem Sunter, the main policy choices SA now faces are, again, putting the economy on the “high road” or the “low road” into the future. A successful macro-economic policy that enables the country to take the high road should contain three key elements: efficiency, stability and consistency.
But the domestic and global circumstances in which major policy decisions must be taken are, at present, considerably tougher, and the margin for error in policymaking much smaller, than in years gone by. Today, too, sovereign-debt ratings and the need to avoid a “debt trap” feature much more prominently on SA’s policy dashboard and have become vital considerations in the country’s economic steersmanship.
Finding a way back to positive investment status must also now be on the national agenda.
And now, in SA’s already complex economic melting pot, there is Covid-19. Having wreaked havoc in global markets, it is negatively impacting individual countries, including SA, where it is damaging both lives and livelihoods. At a time when there is such widespread economic uncertainty, not only in SA but throughout the world, it is difficult to offer reliable views on the global or domestic economic outlook.
Suffice to say that the severity of the damage caused by the virus and the raft of measures required to ...
