Europe set to shed more jobs as economic rebound flags
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Zurich/Geneva — European workers may be about to get another batch of bad news after a summer of job cuts and with the economic recovery threatened by fresh virus outbreaks and localised lockdowns.
Even as some governments consider extensions to job-protecting furlough programmes, the back-to-school period as the continent returns from the summer break is a crucial time for firms to assess demand, budgets and headcount for the rest of the year and into 2021.
Temping companies that match workers with employers say that will also determine whether European countries can continue to avoid the skyrocketing unemployment seen in the US. The outlook isn’t positive.
While state support has helped the likes of Germany, France and even Britain, some of that aid is due to expire. At the same time, the initial post-lockdown economic rebound is showing signs of abating, and some sectors are facing long-term shifts that will mean complete rethinks of business models and staffing.
“In September, they see how the order book is looking,” allowing for visibility until the end of the year, said Alain Dehaze, CEO of staffing giant Adecco Group, one of the world’s biggest staffing companies. “We expect unemployment to increase because some industries are structurally hit.”
The CEO of human resources firm Ranstad also says September “will probably really show the trend for the rest of the year”.
Even with the extensive furlough programmes, the labour market has already taken a massive hit. Nearly half the jobs — 5-million — created since the last recession have already been wiped out as a result of the pandemic. An economic rebound is under way after a 12% slump in the second quarter, but it’s expected to lose steam, resulting in more job losses.
Ryanair Holdings shows how the recovery won’t be smooth. Just weeks after increasing flights in response to pent-up demand from holidaymakers, Europe’s biggest discount carrier slashed capacity for September and October after newly imposed quarantine measures discouraged people from booking foreign trips.
While US unemployment has already shot up to double digits, Europe’s numbers look better for now thanks to the furloughs. But that won’t last. A Bloomberg survey forecasts the euro-area rate at almost 10% by the end of 2020, with very little improvement in 2021.
When “short-time work schemes come to an end, the fairy tale is unlikely to continue”, ING Group economists Carsten Brzeski, Bert Colijn and Carlo Cocuzzo ...
Even as some governments consider extensions to job-protecting furlough programmes, the back-to-school period as the continent returns from the summer break is a crucial time for firms to assess demand, budgets and headcount for the rest of the year and into 2021.
Temping companies that match workers with employers say that will also determine whether European countries can continue to avoid the skyrocketing unemployment seen in the US. The outlook isn’t positive.
While state support has helped the likes of Germany, France and even Britain, some of that aid is due to expire. At the same time, the initial post-lockdown economic rebound is showing signs of abating, and some sectors are facing long-term shifts that will mean complete rethinks of business models and staffing.
“In September, they see how the order book is looking,” allowing for visibility until the end of the year, said Alain Dehaze, CEO of staffing giant Adecco Group, one of the world’s biggest staffing companies. “We expect unemployment to increase because some industries are structurally hit.”
The CEO of human resources firm Ranstad also says September “will probably really show the trend for the rest of the year”.
Even with the extensive furlough programmes, the labour market has already taken a massive hit. Nearly half the jobs — 5-million — created since the last recession have already been wiped out as a result of the pandemic. An economic rebound is under way after a 12% slump in the second quarter, but it’s expected to lose steam, resulting in more job losses.
Ryanair Holdings shows how the recovery won’t be smooth. Just weeks after increasing flights in response to pent-up demand from holidaymakers, Europe’s biggest discount carrier slashed capacity for September and October after newly imposed quarantine measures discouraged people from booking foreign trips.
While US unemployment has already shot up to double digits, Europe’s numbers look better for now thanks to the furloughs. But that won’t last. A Bloomberg survey forecasts the euro-area rate at almost 10% by the end of 2020, with very little improvement in 2021.
When “short-time work schemes come to an end, the fairy tale is unlikely to continue”, ING Group economists Carsten Brzeski, Bert Colijn and Carlo Cocuzzo ...
