Government shunned proper statistical tools to tackle pandemic
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Well-formulated scientific tools exist for tackling complex problems such as the Covid-19 pandemic that include all role players in society. However, rather than a holistic, scientifically based, inclusive plan for the pandemic, the government focused on models that gave uncertain and alarmist projections of loss of life and attached too little weight to the certain loss of jobs, tax revenue and government services.
The notion of science and the awe in which society holds the scientific method is rooted mainly in what science has achieved in the fields of physics and engineering, and how these achievements have driven technological innovation to the benefit of mankind. Science has been less helpful in the fields of human behaviour, such as economics, politics (forecasting election outcomes) and the study of disease transmission. When applied to Covid-19, scientific models could tell us very little about how it would unfold.
In the case of Covid, statisticians have devoted considerable time to building a “model” of the infection path associated with the disease, as well as the impact interventions might have. Such models of the spread of a viral disease in effect try to mimic the path of the virus’s past behaviour, or the past behaviour of what is believed may be a similar virus. In the case of Covid-19 very little past data was available, so statisticians had to not only guess which model might be most appropriate but were unable to test the reliability of any model against actual data. Hence, on the basis of an uncertain model, and with effectively no historical data, it was always going to be challenging to use this approach to estimate the progress of the virus into the future.
Statisticians must always give model estimates that include the uncertainty of their estimates. If the uncertainty associated with model estimates is not made explicit, the government and the public may be given the impression that the model estimates have a weight of scientific knowledge behind them that they do not have. In the same way that forecasts of the spread of Covid are uncertain, the efficacy of the lockdown measures to counter the pandemic that are based on the model estimates are equally uncertain.
One of the most controversial restrictions imposed on SA has been on the sale of liquor and cigarettes. In the case of liquor, the ban has been supported by the contention that there is a ...
The notion of science and the awe in which society holds the scientific method is rooted mainly in what science has achieved in the fields of physics and engineering, and how these achievements have driven technological innovation to the benefit of mankind. Science has been less helpful in the fields of human behaviour, such as economics, politics (forecasting election outcomes) and the study of disease transmission. When applied to Covid-19, scientific models could tell us very little about how it would unfold.
In the case of Covid, statisticians have devoted considerable time to building a “model” of the infection path associated with the disease, as well as the impact interventions might have. Such models of the spread of a viral disease in effect try to mimic the path of the virus’s past behaviour, or the past behaviour of what is believed may be a similar virus. In the case of Covid-19 very little past data was available, so statisticians had to not only guess which model might be most appropriate but were unable to test the reliability of any model against actual data. Hence, on the basis of an uncertain model, and with effectively no historical data, it was always going to be challenging to use this approach to estimate the progress of the virus into the future.
Statisticians must always give model estimates that include the uncertainty of their estimates. If the uncertainty associated with model estimates is not made explicit, the government and the public may be given the impression that the model estimates have a weight of scientific knowledge behind them that they do not have. In the same way that forecasts of the spread of Covid are uncertain, the efficacy of the lockdown measures to counter the pandemic that are based on the model estimates are equally uncertain.
One of the most controversial restrictions imposed on SA has been on the sale of liquor and cigarettes. In the case of liquor, the ban has been supported by the contention that there is a ...
