Here are Abe’s likely successors — but major policy changes are unlikely in Japan
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Tokyo — Although Abe Shinzo has resigned over health problems, few are anticipating drastic changes from the next Japanese prime minister. His most likely successors may only tweak Tokyo’s approach to everything from China ties to monetary policy.
After taking power in 2012, Abe touted unprecedented monetary easing and a flexible fiscal policy to revive the economy — a package dubbed “Abenomics”. He worked to build a personal bond with US President Donald Trump, while seeking to smooth ties with Japan’s biggest trading partner, China.
One of the reasons Abe endured to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister was the lack of open dissent in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Some potential candidates may have held fire while he was in office, but a large degree of continuity is likely in managing the world’s third-largest economy.
“There is little choice but to continue with aggressive fiscal policy and monetary easing” given the state of the economy, especially due to the pandemic, said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “If a new leader wants to upend economic policies, that would cause yen gains and stock falls. No-one wants that.”
Here are some of Abe’s most likely successors.
Shigeru Ishiba (63), former defence minister
No national election need be held until 2021, so a new LDP leader would succeed Abe as premier. Polls show Ishiba is the voters’ top choice to take over. He has backed economic policies seen as more populist than Abe’s and said in an interview in April that too much wealth was accumulating in the hands of stockholders and company owners. He has also cast doubt on the sustainability of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy.
On the international front, Ishiba has been aligned with Abe in trying to keep ties with China on a steady path. In July, Ishiba urged an LDP group to think about the consequences of its call for the cancellation of a planned state visit to Tokyo by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Ishiba, however, has been far more hesitant than Abe about attempting to change the country’s pacifist constitution.
Taro Kono (57), defence minister
Current defence minister Kono is a fluent English speaker and graduate of Georgetown University in the US. He expressed interest in an interview with the Nikkei newspaper earlier this month in working closely with the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance, which brings together Australia, Canada, ...
After taking power in 2012, Abe touted unprecedented monetary easing and a flexible fiscal policy to revive the economy — a package dubbed “Abenomics”. He worked to build a personal bond with US President Donald Trump, while seeking to smooth ties with Japan’s biggest trading partner, China.
One of the reasons Abe endured to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister was the lack of open dissent in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Some potential candidates may have held fire while he was in office, but a large degree of continuity is likely in managing the world’s third-largest economy.
“There is little choice but to continue with aggressive fiscal policy and monetary easing” given the state of the economy, especially due to the pandemic, said Hiroshi Miyazaki, senior economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities. “If a new leader wants to upend economic policies, that would cause yen gains and stock falls. No-one wants that.”
Here are some of Abe’s most likely successors.
Shigeru Ishiba (63), former defence minister
No national election need be held until 2021, so a new LDP leader would succeed Abe as premier. Polls show Ishiba is the voters’ top choice to take over. He has backed economic policies seen as more populist than Abe’s and said in an interview in April that too much wealth was accumulating in the hands of stockholders and company owners. He has also cast doubt on the sustainability of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) monetary policy.
On the international front, Ishiba has been aligned with Abe in trying to keep ties with China on a steady path. In July, Ishiba urged an LDP group to think about the consequences of its call for the cancellation of a planned state visit to Tokyo by Chinese President Xi Jinping. Ishiba, however, has been far more hesitant than Abe about attempting to change the country’s pacifist constitution.
Taro Kono (57), defence minister
Current defence minister Kono is a fluent English speaker and graduate of Georgetown University in the US. He expressed interest in an interview with the Nikkei newspaper earlier this month in working closely with the “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance, which brings together Australia, Canada, ...