NATASHA MARRIAN: Can bleeding DA capitalise on ANC’s Covid weakness?
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With the governing ANC under fire for its role in Covid-19 corruption, you’d have to think the only way it can keep its majority in next year’s election is thanks to the weakness of its opposition.
The local government elections next year are set to be hard fought in a profoundly difficult environment.
SA’s three largest political parties have undergone major shifts over the last five years — from the ANC’s corruption crisis and attempts at reform, to the DA’s identity crisis, and the EFF’s daliance with VBS Mutual Bank.
The governing party looks the weakest. It’s handling of the economy during Covid-19 has been a disaster, and there is widespread disgust at how its members were implicated in corruption around Covid-19 relief funds and PPE tenders.
But luckily for the ANC, the DA is retreating to the safety of its traditional base, which is white and liberal. And black leaders are leaving the party.
This was underscored this week, when Gauteng leader John Moodey resigned from the DA after 22-years. In itself, Moodey’s departure is unlikely to have an earth shattering impact on the DA.
But it should be seen as part of a pattern of departures from the DA — from Athol Trollip to Maimane — which may accelerate after the party’s elective conference and could well damage its prospects.
It illustrates that the DA that contests the 2021 elections may be a vastly different beast to the party we see today. But at this point, it appears improbable that it will be up to taking advantage of a limping ANC in the short term.
If not, it suggests both the ANC and DA may lose support next year, as they did last year.
In 2019, they both lost in key metros: the ANC lost 5 percentage points in Mangaung, compared to 2014, and it shed 10 percentage points in Ethekwini.
Meanwhile, the DA’s biggest loss came in its previous strongholds in Gauteng, while its support even declined in the city of Cape Town.
Maybe the changes in the party will re-energise its base, but the fact is, the party is unlikely to break any new ground in the 2021 polls.
There’s the novelty factor of the election to consider. Ahead of every election in SA, a number of new, small parties have mushroomed — and 2021 will be no different.
Last year, 48 political parties appeared on ...
The local government elections next year are set to be hard fought in a profoundly difficult environment.
SA’s three largest political parties have undergone major shifts over the last five years — from the ANC’s corruption crisis and attempts at reform, to the DA’s identity crisis, and the EFF’s daliance with VBS Mutual Bank.
The governing party looks the weakest. It’s handling of the economy during Covid-19 has been a disaster, and there is widespread disgust at how its members were implicated in corruption around Covid-19 relief funds and PPE tenders.
But luckily for the ANC, the DA is retreating to the safety of its traditional base, which is white and liberal. And black leaders are leaving the party.
This was underscored this week, when Gauteng leader John Moodey resigned from the DA after 22-years. In itself, Moodey’s departure is unlikely to have an earth shattering impact on the DA.
But it should be seen as part of a pattern of departures from the DA — from Athol Trollip to Maimane — which may accelerate after the party’s elective conference and could well damage its prospects.
It illustrates that the DA that contests the 2021 elections may be a vastly different beast to the party we see today. But at this point, it appears improbable that it will be up to taking advantage of a limping ANC in the short term.
If not, it suggests both the ANC and DA may lose support next year, as they did last year.
In 2019, they both lost in key metros: the ANC lost 5 percentage points in Mangaung, compared to 2014, and it shed 10 percentage points in Ethekwini.
Meanwhile, the DA’s biggest loss came in its previous strongholds in Gauteng, while its support even declined in the city of Cape Town.
Maybe the changes in the party will re-energise its base, but the fact is, the party is unlikely to break any new ground in the 2021 polls.
There’s the novelty factor of the election to consider. Ahead of every election in SA, a number of new, small parties have mushroomed — and 2021 will be no different.
Last year, 48 political parties appeared on ...