How will the Alexei Navalny attack affect Russia’s voters?
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Regional elections are often dull and predictable. Unfortunately for President Vladimir Putin, the ones in Russia will be neither on Sunday, when the world’s largest country by land mass goes to the polls. The dramatic poisoning of opposition campaigner Alexei Navalny adds to a string of events that will make it harder than ever for the Kremlin to guarantee its desired results.
A dress rehearsal for national parliamentary elections due next year, this was never going to be a straightforward set of races. Russia’s economy is expected to contract some 4% this year, hurt by the pandemic and an oil crisis. Households are in pain. Anti-government demonstrations have persisted in Khabarovsk, on the Chinese border, and there’s evidence of discontent elsewhere. Finally, there’s the challenge to power in neighbouring Belarus, where marches have not abated.
An ailing Navalny adds a layer of risk.
The attack on one of Putin’s loudest critics has yet to prompt significant popular protests, perhaps in part because assailing opponents is hardly uncommon in Russia. That doesn’t mean the assault won’t encourage citizens to come out in greater numbers and support Navalny’s innovative approach to challenging a rigged system. Last year, his grass roots smart-voting campaign yielded results even where critics were kept off the ballot — most notably in Moscow’s city assembly race, where the ruling party lost a third of its seats. Researchers have found evidence of success in St Petersburg too. More may be inclined to listen this time.
Elections are troublesome for authoritarian leaders. The Kremlin has been remarkably agile in its efforts to retain control in regional and municipal elections, changing the rules frequently, limiting ballot lists and staggering votes.
When the popularity of the ruling United Russia party began to fade after 2018, its pro-government candidates stood as independents. This race will again lean on electronic, mobile and extended voting too — tools justifiable in a pandemic, but that also make it easier to massage results. That fact has not escaped sceptical voters, even if they welcome remote options.
But the cost of victory is rising.
The appeal of Navalny’s approach is that it works even in a system designed to combat dissenting voices by removing unwelcome candidates. He encourages voters to simply back the person best placed to beat the Kremlin pick, whoever that may be, and provides recommendations. This harnesses an often disparate opposition vote and chips away ...
A dress rehearsal for national parliamentary elections due next year, this was never going to be a straightforward set of races. Russia’s economy is expected to contract some 4% this year, hurt by the pandemic and an oil crisis. Households are in pain. Anti-government demonstrations have persisted in Khabarovsk, on the Chinese border, and there’s evidence of discontent elsewhere. Finally, there’s the challenge to power in neighbouring Belarus, where marches have not abated.
An ailing Navalny adds a layer of risk.
The attack on one of Putin’s loudest critics has yet to prompt significant popular protests, perhaps in part because assailing opponents is hardly uncommon in Russia. That doesn’t mean the assault won’t encourage citizens to come out in greater numbers and support Navalny’s innovative approach to challenging a rigged system. Last year, his grass roots smart-voting campaign yielded results even where critics were kept off the ballot — most notably in Moscow’s city assembly race, where the ruling party lost a third of its seats. Researchers have found evidence of success in St Petersburg too. More may be inclined to listen this time.
Elections are troublesome for authoritarian leaders. The Kremlin has been remarkably agile in its efforts to retain control in regional and municipal elections, changing the rules frequently, limiting ballot lists and staggering votes.
When the popularity of the ruling United Russia party began to fade after 2018, its pro-government candidates stood as independents. This race will again lean on electronic, mobile and extended voting too — tools justifiable in a pandemic, but that also make it easier to massage results. That fact has not escaped sceptical voters, even if they welcome remote options.
But the cost of victory is rising.
The appeal of Navalny’s approach is that it works even in a system designed to combat dissenting voices by removing unwelcome candidates. He encourages voters to simply back the person best placed to beat the Kremlin pick, whoever that may be, and provides recommendations. This harnesses an often disparate opposition vote and chips away ...