IAN BREMMER: US elections will not be fair, making them a toss-up
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For most of the summer, former vice-president Joe Biden has maintained a sizeable polling lead over President Donald Trump in the race for the US presidency. In recent weeks though, the polls have tightened.
Some of this has to do with an improving health situation in the US from the pandemic (particularly around mortality rates); some of it has to do with the inevitable economic rebound that comes from restarting a national economy that was ground to a standstill in spring; and some of it has to do with renewed discord over social injustice.
Despite all that, Biden would still be the comfortable favourite to win the election on November 3 based on the polling — if it was going to be a fair election. But it won’t be. That makes it essentially a toss-up. America has never seen a presidential race like this.
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted our lives, in ways big and small. It will also disrupt the way the US goes to vote, and how those votes get counted. With less than two months to go, polling places are gearing up for the logistical challenges that come with longer voting lines and social-distancing measures that will need to be put in place.
Fifty states carrying out what is effectively 50 separate elections — a legacy of the US electoral college — to choose the next US president has always been a Herculean feat. Even in less polarised political climates, past elections have been marred by charges of voter suppression, election administration mistakes, and foreign interference. Similar accusations will be flying around in both the run-up and aftermath of the November 3 elections.
But what’s different this time around is that these calls will be amplified by the sitting president of the US, who will add fuel to the fire in a bid to tip the scales in his favour. For Trump, claiming that the election is rigged isn’t an excuse — it’s a campaign strategy.
Never before in modern American history has the US had a sitting president actively trying to delegitimise the outcome of a US election for the sake of his own political prospects. Maybe the most egregious and direct assault Trump has launched of late has been against mail-in voting, which is expected to reach unprecedented levels in the midst of a pandemic.
Trump has admitted that he doesn’t want to fund the ...
Some of this has to do with an improving health situation in the US from the pandemic (particularly around mortality rates); some of it has to do with the inevitable economic rebound that comes from restarting a national economy that was ground to a standstill in spring; and some of it has to do with renewed discord over social injustice.
Despite all that, Biden would still be the comfortable favourite to win the election on November 3 based on the polling — if it was going to be a fair election. But it won’t be. That makes it essentially a toss-up. America has never seen a presidential race like this.
The Covid-19 pandemic has disrupted our lives, in ways big and small. It will also disrupt the way the US goes to vote, and how those votes get counted. With less than two months to go, polling places are gearing up for the logistical challenges that come with longer voting lines and social-distancing measures that will need to be put in place.
Fifty states carrying out what is effectively 50 separate elections — a legacy of the US electoral college — to choose the next US president has always been a Herculean feat. Even in less polarised political climates, past elections have been marred by charges of voter suppression, election administration mistakes, and foreign interference. Similar accusations will be flying around in both the run-up and aftermath of the November 3 elections.
But what’s different this time around is that these calls will be amplified by the sitting president of the US, who will add fuel to the fire in a bid to tip the scales in his favour. For Trump, claiming that the election is rigged isn’t an excuse — it’s a campaign strategy.
Never before in modern American history has the US had a sitting president actively trying to delegitimise the outcome of a US election for the sake of his own political prospects. Maybe the most egregious and direct assault Trump has launched of late has been against mail-in voting, which is expected to reach unprecedented levels in the midst of a pandemic.
Trump has admitted that he doesn’t want to fund the ...